March 24, 2015
Will Asia's Peace Last?
Will Asia’s peace endure? The answer depends on how policymakers cope with growing structural pressures that increasingly encourage miscalculations, arms races, and reckless foreign policies.
A number of well-known yet largely overlooked regional trends make conflict more likely than in the past: mistrust; uncertainty; and widespread military modernization. The greater risk of conflict over time comes from the convergence of these trends with Asia’s longstanding flashpoints.
Now more than ever, Asian states express twin uncertainties about the intentions of a rising and increasingly assertive China on the one hand, and the willingness of the United States to maintain its stabilizing role in the region on the other. Apart from great power uncertainties, Asian states are wary about each other’s long-term capabilities and intentions as well — especially as much of the region undergoes a transition to larger and diverse militaries with more advanced capabilities. All of these insecurities become compounded by the limited ability of Asian states to forge deep security cooperation because of enduring mistrust of one another. Binding agreements are incompatible with the prevailing regional norm of consensus-based cooperation, yet even non-binding but transparent and predictable patterns of behavior are also largely absent from the regional security landscape.
Read the full op-ed at The Diplomat.
More from CNAS
-
The Financing of WMD Proliferation (JCE TEST)
Reports
The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is a critical threat facing the international community. Numerous United Nations Security Council Resolutions (UNSCRs) place b...
By Jonathan Brewer
-
Bombshell: Come What May
Podcast
Erin, Radha, and Loren invited Dr. Lindsay Cohn of the U.S. Naval War College to join their posse and explain America’s history of employing the military for domestic purposes...
By Loren DeJonge Schulman, Lindsay Cohn, Radha Iyengar & Erin Simpson
-
Loren DeJonge Schulman on The Smell of Victory Podcast
Podcast
On The Smell of Victory Podcast, Bob Hein and Phil Walter sat down with Loren DeJonge Schulman of the Center for a New American Security to discuss the draft. Listen to the f...
By Loren DeJonge Schulman
-
Susanna V. Blume on Defense & Aerospace Report Podcast
Podcast
On this Roundtable episode of the Defense & Aerospace Report Podcast, sponsored by Bell, a Textron company, our guests include Bob Hale,(who now advises Booz Allen Hamilton &m...
By Susanna V. Blume
